Published 13 August 2026
A global cotton deficit strengthens prices, but quality will determine who benefits
The 2026/27 cotton market is entering a deficit year. Global consumption is expected to reach 122.9 million bales, while production is projected at 117.6 million, creating a supply gap of 5.3 million bales and reducing ending stocks to 69.7 million bales. World trade is forecast to rise to 43.8 million bales, while the A-Index climbed to 95 cents per pound on 10 August. These figures point to a more supportive international market for producers and exporters. For Cameroon, however, higher global prices do not automatically translate into higher profits.
The country remains forecast to produce 530,000 bales and export 525,000 bales, confirming the highly export-oriented nature of the sector. Chad also received an upward revision, adding 35,000 bales of production and 25,000 bales of exports compared with July estimates. The opportunity is clear, but so is the risk.
Higher prices reward producers capable of delivering consistent fibre quality, while exporters remain exposed to contamination, weak yields and logistical constraints. Financing institutions must also consider the possibility of price corrections if global textile demand weakens.A global deficit may improve bargaining power, but it cannot replace operational efficiency.
Higher freight rates are restoring revenue, but not profitability
Hapag-Lloyd’s second-quarter results illustrate one of the most important lessons currently emerging in global shipping.
The company increased revenue by 10.8% to US$5.84 billion after transporting 3.481 million TEU and raising its average freight rate by 8.9% to US$1,475 per TEU. Yet net profit fell by 73%, reaching only US$83 million. EBITDA increased by just 1.1%, while margins continued to decline. The explanation lies in operating costs.
According to the company, disruption linked to the Middle East conflict generated approximately US$600 million in additional costs through higher fuel prices, insurance, storage, rerouting and inland transportation expenses. The increase in freight rates restored revenue, but it failed to restore earnings. The broader picture is even more revealing.
Across the first half of 2026, Hapag-Lloyd generated US$10.76 billion in revenue but recorded only US$18 million in EBIT and a net loss of US$173 million. Revenue growth alone is no longer a reliable indicator of financial strength in global shipping.
For importers and exporters in Central Africa, the lesson is straightforward: freight rates are only one part of the equation. Reliability, route stability and operating costs increasingly determine supply chain performance.Carrier performance shows that execution matters as much as market conditions
The comparison between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd demonstrates that two companies can operate in the same market and achieve very different results.
Maersk reported second-quarter revenue of US$15.8 billion, EBITDA of US$3 billion and EBIT of US$1.6 billion. Ocean freight rates increased by 22%, while ocean EBIT reached US$935 million, recovering from a loss recorded in the previous quarter.
Hapag-Lloyd achieved similar volume growth of 3.5%, but its average freight rate increased by only 8.9%, resulting in liner EBIT of US$153 million. The comparison suggests that Maersk captured a larger share of the spot-rate rebound while managing operating costs more effectively. The differences extend beyond pricing.
Maersk highlighted particularly strong imports into Africa while simultaneously warning about congestion at West African ports. Higher vessel utilisation may improve profitability, but it can also slow equipment rotation and reduce schedule reliability. For CEMAC businesses, a lower freight rate loses its value if it extends delivery cycles.
The market is increasingly rewarding operational execution rather than simple participation in global trade.
Three strategic questions for CEMAC
First, how can cotton exporters improve product quality while increasing export volumes?
Second, how can banks, logistics companies and exporters prepare for greater volatility in both commodity and freight markets?
Third, how can Central African businesses build more resilient supply chains when higher freight rates no longer guarantee stronger shipping performance?
Five indicators worth monitoring
Cotton quality and contamination rates.
Export volumes through Cameroon and Chad.
Freight-rate movements across major shipping routes.
Shipping company margins and profitability.
Port congestion and equipment availability.
If these indicators are monitored together, businesses across CEMAC will be better positioned to respond to changing commodity markets and increasingly complex global logistics networks.
Source
USDA, Cotton: World Markets and Trade, August 2026. Indicators include world consumption (122.9 million bales), production (117.6 million bales), trade (43.8 million bales) and the A-Index (95 cents per pound). Cameroon and Chad figures are forecasts rather than realised trade flows. H1 2026 report and company release published 13 August 2026. Indicators include Q2 revenue (US$5.84 billion), EBITDA (US$829 million), profit (US$83 million) and the estimated US$600 million impact of Middle East disruptions. Q2 comparisons are against 2025.Maersk Q2 results (13 August 2026), Hapag-Lloyd H1 results (13 August 2026), CMA CGM Q2 results (28 July 2026) and the ZIM reporting calendar (19 August 2026). Comparisons are directional because reporting methodologies differ across carriers.
