Blue Star Media, Brief Quotidien of Wednesday 26 August 2026.

The June 2026 monetary policy report, published on 2 July by the Bank of Central African States, uses a baseline scenario built on crude at 87.2 dollars a barrel. On that basis, the central bank's foreign reserves would reach 7,962.3 billion CFA francs at 31 December 2026, a rise of 25% on the year. That level would represent 4.72 months of goods and services imports, after 4.12 months in 2025, and an external cover ratio for the currency of 70.7%.
The starting point is more modest. At end April 2026, reserves stood at 7,248 billion CFA francs, down 1.6% year on year. The central bank's daily net foreign assets reached 4,160.6 billion CFA francs at end May, roughly 6.34 billion euros at the fixed peg of 655.957 CFA francs to the euro, a conversion rather than a market rate. That figure is up 2.5% on the year but remains below the record 4,197.3 billion recorded on 14 March 2025.
The composition of the increase repays a line by line reading. Sight foreign assets rose 4.7%, helped by a 6.1% increase in balances held at the Operations Account. The gold stock gained 35.2% in value, a mechanical consequence of international bullion prices. Other convertible currency holdings, by contrast, fell 22.9%. The central bank itself attributes the upward path observed since December 2025 to eurobond issues by Cameroon and Congo, to bilateral and commercial borrowing by member states, to repatriated oil receipts and to disbursements from institutional partners.
The distinction is not academic. A buffer financed by borrowing accumulates quickly and unwinds at the same pace as maturities fall due. Looking further out, the BEAC projects 8,649.1 billion CFA francs in 2027, equal to 5.08 months of imports, then 9,555 billion in 2028 and 10,773.2 billion in 2029, with external cover held at around 75% on an annual average.

The first window is the regional market. Cameroon's Treasury returned to the CEMAC public securities market on 24 August 2026 with 20 billion CFA francs of 52 week Treasury bills, repayable in a single instalment on 25 August 2027, with a unit face value of 1 million CFA francs and interest deducted at issue. Twenty two institutions held primary dealer status for the operation, among them Afriland First Bank, BICEC, Commercial Bank Cameroon, Ecobank Cameroun, Société Générale Cameroun, SCB Cameroun, Standard Chartered Bank Cameroon and UBA. Settlement and value date fall on Wednesday 26 August.
The second window is concessional and conditional. The African Development Bank's proposed partial credit guarantee for Cameroon comes with an environmental and social management plan annexed to the financing agreement, setting out seventeen dated actions. Two safeguard specialists, one environmental and one social, must be appointed within thirty days of entry into force, and the grievance mechanism must be operational before any field activity begins. Quarterly monitoring reports are due within two weeks of each period, notification of a serious incident within 72 hours, and root cause analysis of a fatal accident within 30 days. Capacity building for the interministerial committee is scheduled within 60 days. The project is classified category A, the highest risk level in the Bank's framework, a classification validated in May 2026.
The third window is commercial and pan African. Afreximbank raised shareholders' funds to 8.5 billion dollars at 30 June 2026, from 8.4 billion at end 2025. Total assets and contingent liabilities rose 7.8% to 52.3 billion dollars, and net loans and advances 5.7% to 35.4 billion. The non performing loan ratio eased to 2.20% from 2.43% at end 2025, liquid assets represented 13% of the balance sheet, within the bank's 10% to 15% target range, and half year net income reached 534.7 million dollars, up 30% on the year. Net interest income came in at 1 billion dollars, up 22%, and fee and commission income at 71.1 million, up 15%, driven notably by guarantees and letters of credit. For a Cameroonian exporter, those aggregates translate into capacity to confirm documentary credits and to provide counter guarantees.

One parameter answers to none of the three windows. At end March 2026, Cameroonian state arrears to suppliers were put at more than 520 billion CFA francs, on a figure carried by L'Economie on 25 August 2026. For a company invoicing the public sector or awaiting a VAT credit refund, that figure, rather than the months of import cover published by the central bank, sets the working capital requirement and the price of supplier credit.
The two series do not converge mechanically. They meet when a multi year financing framework connects them explicitly, linking the pace of external disbursements to the pace of domestic arrears clearance. That is why the seventeen deadlines in the management plan attached to the AfDB guarantee deserve to be followed for what they are: a dated, verifiable benchmark whose execution will be measured on the documents.

The BEAC projects 7,962.3 billion CFA francs of reserves at 31 December 2026, equal to 4.72 months of imports, against 7,248 billion recorded at end April, down 1.6% year on year.
The drivers named by the central bank are financing flows and a gold valuation effect, not a trade surplus.
The centralisation ratio has risen to 73.93% from 69.19% a year earlier, and it is that parameter which governs foreign exchange allocation timing.
Three windows opened in the same week: 20 billion CFA francs of 52 week bills on 24 August, seventeen dated measures attached to the AfDB guarantee, and an Afreximbank balance sheet extended to 52.3 billion dollars.
The cash calendar of state suppliers remains a separate series, put at more than 520 billion CFA francs of arrears at end March 2026 by L'Economie.

Sources
Primary: BEAC, monetary policy report of June 2026, published 2 July 2026, baseline scenario built on crude at 87.2 dollars a barrel; Afreximbank, first half 2026 financial results; BVMAC, notice no. 056/2026; Drewry, World Container Index of 20 August 2026 for the freight marker cited in the index.
Secondary: Sikafinance, 6 July 2026, detailed summary of the BEAC report; Investir au Cameroun, 2 July 2026; Défis Actuels and News du Cameroun, 25 August 2026, on the 24 August auction; L'Economie, 25 and 26 August 2026, on the AfDB guarantee, the Afreximbank results, the BVMAC and the AfDB programme in Chad; Agence Ecofin, May 2026, for the Sodecoton target cited in the index.
Divergence flagged: the Sikafinance summary of the BEAC report gives an external cover ratio of 66.9% on a 2025 base, while Investir au Cameroun gives 65.2%. The gap concerns the base year, not the 70.7% projection for 2026. Both figures are reported here without adjudication.
Conversions between the euro and the CFA franc use the fixed peg of 655.957 CFA francs to one euro and should be read as orders of magnitude. Dollar amounts are reproduced as published by the issuers, with no CFA conversion, as no dated exchange rate was available.

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